Here are some things to look for in Nevada’s caucuses:
Can Trump win a caucus?
Donald Trump has shocked the Republican party after his massive victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina, both states are primary states, but he lost to Sen. Cruz in Iowa despite leading in the polls in the days leading up the caucuses.
Only 33,000 Republicans turned out for the 2012 caucuses, less than 10 percent of the state’s registered Republicans and five times fewer than caucuses in Iowa earlier this month. Trump’s success today will hinge on how successful his campaign’s ground game is.
Can Rubio break out?
After his second place finish in South Carolina, Rubio has been bolstered by the departure of Jeb Bush and gained several key endorsements including: Sen. Dean Heller, an influential Mormon congressman who previously backed Bush, and Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison. In 2012, Mitt Romney easily won Nevada by winning almost 90% of the Mormon vote.
A strong second place finish could establish him as the main alternative to Trump.
Can Cruz win with the base?
Cruz has relied on the evangelical vote to bolster his campaign, but Nevada lacks a significant evangelical population. And Trump has won big with evangelicals in two of the three contests so far. Ben Carson’s campaign continues to divert evangelical voters away from Cruz as well.
Is the end of Carson’s campaign?
Ben Carson is expected to finish poorly in Nevada as his campaign fails to regain traction. Carson finished fourth in Iowa, eighth in New Hampshire, and sixth in South Carolina, but the retired neurosurgeon has vowed to press on.
But without a surprise in Nevada a comeback seems unlikely. The race becomes very expensive heading into Super Tuesday when campaigns need the resources to compete in the 11 states awarding delegates that day.
Carson currently has just $4 million on hand so without outside funding, his campaign would only be able to compete in just few states.